By September last year, just about half of those arriving from abroad to live and work in the UK took up jobs in Health and Social Care (62,794 to be precise): and of these, just about half again (28,905) arrived from the Subcontinent. Fast forward a year, and the number of Indian Nationals coming to the UK to work in Health and Social Care has increased to 52,992, virtually double last year’s figure, and that’s according to the government’s own statistics (www.gov.uk). And, of course, this shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone…having virtually cut itself off from a ready pool of European healthcare professionals (thanks to Brexit). In the teeth of an escalating social care crisis, Rishi Sunak’s administration has now presided over a threefold increase in health and care-based immigration in little more than thirteen months.
But what might come as a surprise was the Home Secretary’s decision this week to increase the annual threshold salary for skilled immigrants from £26,200 to £38,000, bearing in mind the average salary for a nurse in the UK is currently £35,000 (www.nurses.co.uk) and that, for those working in social care, the average wage is £30,852 (https://uk.talent.com/), only a handful of overseas nurses and care workers can possibly hope to qualify for a visa under the new scheme…and this, let's remind ourselves, is happening in the middle of an NHS staffing crisis. You could hardly pick a worse moment to pull up the drawbridge on such a vital gateway between the UK and India.
And, as if to rub salt in the wound, Mr. Sunak’s government is also planning to ban care workers (and overseas undergraduate students for that matter) from bringing their partners and children to live with them in the UK.
Given the disproportionately high figures for skilled immigration to the UK from India (for obvious historical reasons), you might also be forgiven for thinking all this would be stirring up some choppy diplomatic waters between Delhi and London…and if you thought that, well… you’d be right. None of this has escaped the attention of either Mr. Modi, or his senior officials in India’s Trade and Treasury Departments, so it’s not exactly the best moment for the UK to launch another round of Anglo-Indian Free Trade negotiations.
Oddly enough, though, that’s precisely what’s happening at the moment: indeed, Narendra Modi has personally signalled his desire to have the whole multibillion-dollar deal signed off within the next three months (just in time for next year’s general election campaigns in both countries).
I’m not sure if that’s altogether realistic or whether the advance party of Downing Street negotiators has already flown in to resume previously stalled negotiations (stalking the corridors of power in Delhi like a flock of long-legged, bowler-hatted crows), but one unnamed UK official was positively bubbling over with diffidence: “The deal is still very much on, and we think it is possible to close it before both countries have their elections. Both sides are keen to get this done.” Indeed they are…and, of course, the advantages of a free trade deal with the most populous nation on earth, the world’s biggest democracy, are simply too obvious to mention.
As and when those talks do resume, it will mark the thirteenth round in a series of negotiations dating back to 2021: but fear not, the European Union has been trying (so far unsuccessfully) to reach a free trade deal with India for the last seventeen years, so all those long legged crows are, in some ways, the very model of diplomatic efficiency.
We can only wish them the best of luck…
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The Subcontinent has been at the heart of Red Ribbon Asset Management (www.redribbon.co) for more than a decade, shaping its successful investment strategies in conjunction with an unparalleled knowledge of the Subcontinent’s markets: delivering higher than average investor returns, and looking after the Planet and People in the process.
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UK Negotiators flying out to Delhi for the latest round of free trade talks could have hoped for a better send-off from the Home Secretary…but let’s wish them all the best: this could be a seminal moment for both Britain and India.
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